امروز : 20 آذر 1395

Republicans take majority of congress too

چهارشنبه 19 آبان 11:12
Appointment and confirmation of the replacement justice was left to the newly elected president and Senate in 2017. This put increased pressure on both parties to win the Senate in 2016, as the chamber has the ability to confirm or deny the next president's nominees.
Republicans take majority of congress too

There was significantly less at stake in the U.S. House in 2016, as control of the chamber was unlikely to be in question. In order to flip the chamber, the Democratic Party needed to pick up 30 seats. While it was unlikely for the Democratic Party to gain control of the chamber in this election cycle, Democrats hoped to reduce the majority that the Republican Party held. Heading into the election, Republicans held their largest majority in the U.S. House since 1928.

The fact that 2016 was a presidential election year was expected to be a boon for Democratic candidates. In the past decade, Democrats have made gains in both chambers in presidential elections, while they have suffered losses in the midterms.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • There were nine Senate battlegrounds that decided which party would control the Senate.
  • There were 23 House battlegrounds. Even if Democrats had swept them, they still would not have gained control of the House. Democrats needed to gain 30 seats to win the House.
  • There were only 21 states that featured at least one battleground race in either the House or the Senate. The rest were largely noncompetitive.
See also: United States Senate elections, 2016

Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the U.S. Senate. Republicans held 54 Senate seats while the Democrats had 44 Senate seats. Two seats were held by independents, who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Republicans won the Senate majority in the 2014 midterm elections when they gained nine seats and lost none.

U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 2016 After the 2016 Election
     Democratic Party 44 Pending
     Republican Party 54 Pending
     Independent 2 Pending
Total 100 100

There were 24 Republican seats and 10 Democratic seats up for re-election. In 2016, the Democratic Party needed to pick up five seats in the Senate in order to regain the majority they lost in 2014. The majority of the Republican incumbents up for re-election in 2016 were first elected in 2010 during the Tea Party movement.[7] The below map displays the seats up for re-election in 2016 and the party that held the seat. Click a state to find out more.

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2016United States Senate election in California, 2016United States Senate election in Oregon, 2016United States Senate election in Washington, 2016United States Senate election in Washington, 2016United States Senate election in Oklahoma, 2016United States Senate election in Kansas, 2016United States Senate election in South Dakota, 2016United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2016United States Senate election in Colorado, 2016United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016United States Senate election in Utah, 2016United States Senate election in Idaho, 2016United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2016United States Senate election in Iowa, 2016United States Senate election in Missouri, 2016United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2016United States Senate election in Louisiana, 2016United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2016United States Senate election in Ohio, 2016United States Senate election in Indiana, 2016United States Senate election in Illinois, 2016United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2016United States Senate election in Florida, 2016United States Senate election in Florida, 2016United States Senate election in South Carolina, 2016United States Senate election in Georgia, 2016United States Senate election in Alabama, 2016United States Senate election in Alaska, 2016United States Senate election in Alaska, 2016United States Senate election in Alaska, 2016United States Senate election in Alaska, 2016United States Senate election in Alaska, 2016United States Senate election in Alaska, 2016United States Senate election in Alaska, 2016United States Senate election in Alaska, 2016United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2016United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2016United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2016United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2016United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2016United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2016United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2016United States Senate election in Vermont, 2016United States Senate election in Maryland, 2016United States Senate election in New York, 2016United States Senate election in New York, 2016United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2016Senate 2016 Elections Map.png

Retiring incumbents

The following senators did not seek re-election in 2016.

  • Democratic Party 3 Democrats
  • Republican Party 2 Republicans
Name: Party: Current office:
Barbara Boxer Electiondot.png Democratic California
Barbara Mikulski Electiondot.png Democratic Maryland
Dan Coats Ends.png Republican Indiana
David Vitter Ends.png Republican Louisiana
Harry Reid Electiondot.png Democratic Nevada

Presidential impact

Presidential elections have a large impact on congressional elections, the most obvious of which is increased voter interest and participation. In the last two decades, presidential elections have led to roughly 15 to 20 percent higher turnout rates than in the corresponding midterm.[40] The following chart shows the disparity between voter turnout in presidential elections and midterms.

Voter turnout comparison.JPG

In the past decade, presidential elections have benefited the Democratic Party, while midterms have helped Republicans. The Democratic Party gained an average of five Senate seats and 16 House seats in the last two presidential elections, and the Republican Party picked up an average of 7.5 Senate seats and 38.5 House seats in the last two midterms.[41]

Past partisan breakdowns
  Senate House
Year Democrats Republicans Independents[42] Net change Democrats Republicans Net change
2014 44 54 2 +9 R 188 247 +13 R
2012 53 45 2 +2 D 201 234 +8 D
2010 51 47 2 +6 R 193 242 +64 R
2008 57 41 2 +8 D 257 178 +24 D
2006 49 49 2 +5 D 233 202 +22 D

Can Democrats reclaim the House?

according to rapporteur report from BP, link ,Despite the large Republican majority in the House, a major collapse due to Donald Trump's presidential campaign could have put the House back in play in 2016. This section highlights what was said by pundits on the possibility of Democrats gaining control of Congress.

  • John Sides (The Washington Post) - October 18, 2016: "This model currently predicts that the Democrats will control 204 seats after the 2016 election. That is 16 more than they had after the 2014 election. The margin of error associated with that is plus or minus 8 seats. That forecast implies a very small chance — less than 1 percent — that the Democrats could win the 218 or more seats needed for a majority."[43]
  • Sean Trende (RealClear Politics) - October 8, 2016: "What’s more interesting is the House. When Trump first secured the nomination in March, analysts speculated that he could flip the chambe

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